We told you this would happen. Hammer and I started sounding the alarm about an imminent market crash two weeks ago. And here it is…
Micron shares are down 19% this week….Nvidia is down 10% ….AMD down 16%…Crowdstrike down 12%…Qualcomm down 10.5%…
Pretty much every market-leading Big Tech stock has been socked square in the face this week.
And the S&P 500 looks like this:
Yep, for all the damage done to the market-leading Magnificent 7 and AI-focused stocks, it’s barely a blip for the S&P 500.
No doubt a lot of investors are taking this sell-off in stride so far. “Stocks are just blowing off a little stream” or “it’s just a little pullback.” No doubt plenty of investors are ready to buy the dip…
The problem is – on a seasonal basis, we are right at the start of the worst period of the year for stocks. Yes, the first half of July is always a good time for stocks. In each of the last 9 years, the S&P 500 has rallied during the first couple weeks in July.
And if you average it out, the July rally has ended in each of the last 9 years on…July 17. That was yesterday. And it was a nasty sell-off. What’s ahead could be nastier…
August is typically the worst month of the year for money getting pulled out of index funds and mutual funds, as investors get nervous. That sets up September, which is typically the worst full month for stocks of any year.
Yes, stocks have a tendency to bottom in October, but that’s a ways off…
What About Earnings?
About a month ago, before the July rally started, all the Wall Street strategists started hiking their year-end targets for the S&P 500. This was not a coincidence. This is how the game is played…
The big investment banks know full well what the seasonal patterns for stocks are. Might as well make hay while the sun is shining and pump stock prices as high as possible – right before the bottom falls out.
It is highly likely that the S&P 500 is at the start of what will be at least a 10% correction. From the high water mark set earlier this week, that means a decline of 550 points and will take the S&P 500 back to where it was in April.
But you should know – stock market corrections can be as much as 20%. That means 1,100 points lower, effectively erasing most of this year’s gains.
Now, it’s well known that a market in a downtrend will put in really big rallies that last a day or two. These sharp moves higher have a tendency to lull investors into thinking buying the dip is a good idea. We are likely about to get one of those big rallies.
If you haven’t lightened up your market exposure – especially to Big Tech stocks – don’t be fooled by the next sharp move higher and think it means that everything is fine. Take advantage of the next sharp rally and lighten up a little.
Godspeed,
Briton Ryle
Chief Investment Strategist
Outsider Club
X/Twitter: https://twitter.com/BritonRyle
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